The BYD brand has made a rapid ascent in Australia since its mainstream market launch here in 2022, and its local distributor EVDirect has made bold sales forecasts ever since then.
Now it says it can overtake long-time Australian market leader Toyota as soon as 2027.
“I’m on record as saying our target is 2027,” EVDirect founder and executive chairman, Luke Todd, told CarExpert when asked when BYD expects to be the number-one auto brand in Australia.
“A lot will happen between now and 2027, but what I can say is I look back at what I predicted over the last three years and unless I’m missing something, every crazy prediction that I made has actually happened.
“So long as we keep up that success rate, there’s no reason why we can’t be at least a top contender,” he added, leaving a little bit of wriggle room.
Hundreds of new car deals are available through CarExpert right now. Get the experts on your side and score a great deal. Browse now.
When asked what exactly a “top contender” is, Mr Todd said that would mean a placing in the top three best-selling brands.
He called EVDirect’s target of 45,000 sales this year “quite achievable”.
Late last year, EVDirect CEO David Smitherman told CarExpert that the company planned to double its sales every year.
“[In 2023] we sold 12,500 vehicles and I’m very happy to go on record that year after year we’re looking to double those sales, so long as we can get the vehicles in market at the right time,” said Mr Smitherman.
“So our expectations will be for next year to double sales again and to aggressively grow our market share as we bring new models on.”
Even at that rate, BYD wouldn’t be able to beat Toyota by 2027 unless the Japanese giant stumbled significantly.
Last year, BYD sold 20,458 vehicles in Australia: 14,260 electric vehicles (EVs) and 6198 plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), good enough to make it our market’s second best-selling EV brand and second best-selling PHEV brand.
Overall, it was the market’s 17th best-selling brand in 2024.
While the brand’s rapid ascent in Australia is impressive, BYD has fallen short of some previously stated goals.
Mr Todd said in February 2022 that BYD planned to be a top-five brand in Australia by sales volume in the next 18 months, and later that year said it would have more than 20 physical retail locations nationally by 2024 and eight separate models on sale by the end of 2024.
In December 2023, Mr Todd stated a target of being a top-five brand in 2025.
Based on 2024 industry sales figures, BYD would need to sell more than 70,000 vehicles in a year to become a top-five player. Fifth-placed Mitsubishi recorded 74,547 sales last year.
To become a top three-player, it would need to shift over 95,000 units (third-place Mazda sold 95,987 vehicles in 2024), while to take the grand prize of top spot, it would need to beat Toyota’s 241,296 sales.
That’s a lofty goal, given Toyota has everything from a light hatch to a full-sized off-roader and almost every model in between, including petrol, diesel, hybrid, and electric vehicles.
Toyota has also been Australia’s best-selling car brand for 22 years, setting an all-time record last year. There’s a huge gulf between it and second-placed Ford, which sold less than half as many units (100,170) last year despite having Australia’s best-selling vehicle.
BYD now sells five models – the Dolphin, Seal and Atto 3 EVs, and the Sealion 6 and Shark 6 PHEVs – with a sixth, the Sealion 7 EV, due for release in February.
This new mid-sized electric SUV will tackle the Tesla Model Y, Australia’s best-selling EV.
Combined with the Shark 6 plug-in hybrid ute, deliveries of which only commenced this month, and the Sealion 6, which only launched here in mid-2024 and is already Australia’s second top-selling PHEV, BYD could see a significant boost in volume.
The Chinese brand now has over 40 retail locations nationwide, and offers servicing through over 40 mycar locations.
