Battery longevity and its impact on resale values has long been one of the deterrents for the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs), alongside purchase price, range anxiety and charging infrastructure.
Now a study by universities in three different countries has found that, even with intensive use, EVs on average are projected to match the typical lifespan of their internal combustion engine (ICE) counterparts with an expected operating life of 18 years, thanks to rapid advances in EV tech.
As reported by AutoExpress, researchers from the University of Birmingham, London School of Economics and Political Science, University of California San Diego, and Switzerland’s University of Bern found that EVs are now just as reliable as petrol and diesel cars.
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After analysing more than 300 million UK Ministry of Transport records between 2005 and 2022, they found the likelihood of a technological failure fell by an average of 12 per cent per year during the 18-year period, compared with 6.7 per cent and 1.9 per cent for petrol and diesel cars respectively.
Furthermore, while early electric vehicles were less reliable, the study found the projected lifespan of the average EV now sits at around 18.4 years and up to 124,000 miles (200,000km), which the researchers said surpasses the average for an equivalent petrol-powered vehicle.
The study found Tesla vehicles to be the top-performing EVs in terms of longevity, while combustion-powered vehicles from Audi and Skoda were the best performers among ICE vehicles.
Describing electric cars as “no longer just a niche option”, Dr Viet Nguyen-Tien of the London School of Economics and Political Science said the findings provide a “critical insight into the lifespan and environmental impact of electric vehicles”.
Professor of Economics at the University of Birmingham, Robert Elliott, said that despite the higher emissions involved with EV production, “a long-lasting electric vehicle can quickly offset its carbon footprint, contributing to the fight against climate change – making them a more sustainable long-term option”.
“Our findings offer consumers reliable data to make informed decisions about their vehicle purchases, whilst policymakers can use our insights to shape regulations and incentives that promote the adoption of durable and environmentally friendly vehicles and plan ahead their end-of-life treatment.”
Indeed, while the reduction in purchase price premiums and lower running costs should lead to a lower total cost of ownership for EVs, electric cars also produce less CO2 than ICE cars during their lifespans.
In its 2020 Carbon Footprint report, Volvo subjected its battery-electric XC40 Recharge EV and its petrol-powered XC40 sibling to Life Cycle Assessments according to ISO standards, in a like-for-like comparison of their lifetime emissions outputs (including manufacturing and use) given both small electric SUVs were produced in the same factory.
It found that during the EV’s usage cycle, it not only made up for the extra emissions during production of its raw materials and batteries, but discounted it entirely – even when recharging using ‘dirty’ electricity.
Volvo calculated that over its lifecycle (which it defined as 200,000km), the electric version of the XC40 produced less CO2e – a measurement of greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide, methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and freons/CFCs – than the ICE version, at 28 versus 41 tonnes.
Therefore, the EV would break even (making up for its higher raw materials and battery CO2e) with the ICE vehicle at 146,000km – or almost three-quarters of Volvo’s lifecycle.
This calculation is based on a global averaged electricity mix (GAEM), which is more carbon-intensive in its production (due to factors including coal-fired power stations) than in regions such as Europe.
If powered solely by renewable wind turbine energy, Volvo said the XC40 Recharge would produce 18 tonnes of CO2e – 10 tonnes less than its ICE equivalent – and therefore the EV would start to emit less CO2e overall than the ICE vehicle after just 47,000km of use.
Given Australia’s energy mix is closer to the GAEM than 100 per cent wind-powered, based on average annual mileage of 15,000km the Volvo XC40 Recharge’s lifecycle emissions should become lower than its ICE equivalent in just under a decade of ownership.
